COVID-19 Pandemic Estimated End Date in Turkey

Abstract

Background: Since the New Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) can also be spread by asymptomatic individuals, identifying asymptomatic carriers is a key point in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. With this study, it was aimed to draw attention to the COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test positivity rate sent before the operation / interventional procedure in asymptomatic individuals and to determine an estimated time about the decay time of the pandemic. Methods: All patients over the age of 18 who were sent COVID-19 PCR test before the operation or interventional procedure between July 1 and October 31, 2020 were included in the study. The patients were divided into two groups according to the periods when the peak was experienced or not. Results: 1070 patients were included in the study. PCR positivity was detected in 55 (5.14%) of the patients. The mean case incidence rate was 0.76% (2/263) in the months when the study was conducted and there was no COVID-19 peak, and 6.57% (53/807) in the months when the peak was observed. These rates were taken as reference for the months with and without peak. The time to reach 67%, which is accepted as the herd immunity limit, was calculated by adding 6.57% to the months corresponding to peak periods with 20-day periods starting from April 1, and the rate of 0.76% to the other months. Since there were two peaks after April 2020, the mass immunity rate reached until today has been calculated . If no COVID-19 peak occurs since this date, the possible pandemic attenuation time was determined as March 2022, and if the only peak occurs, May 2021. Conclusions: The incidence fluctuates with the restrictions, the risk of re-infection, the virüs being open to new mutations, and the initiation of vaccination programs make it difficult to predict the pandemic attenuation time. Key Words: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, asymptomatic, herd immunity