Forecast Rounding, Forecast Uncertainty, Managers’ Language, and Investors’ Judgments

Abstract

We investigate how rounded (e.g., 10 percent) versus unrounded (e.g., 9.73 percent, 10.00 percent, or 10.27 percent) sales growth forecasts impact investor judgment. We hypothesize that investors are more willing to invest in a company when the degree of rounding matches the amount of forecast uncertainty (i.e., rounded forecasts in more uncertain environments and unrounded forecasts in less uncertain environments). We also hypothesize that managers can offset the negative impact of a mismatch between forecast rounding and forecast uncertainty by using more immediate language in their forecasts. In a first experiment using M.B.A. students as investors, we find a combination of support and partial support for our hypotheses. However, in a second experiment using online workers and a third experiment using M.B.A. students, we fail to find support for our hypotheses. Overall, we fail to find replicable effects of forecast rounding, forecast uncertainty, and language immediacy on investors’ judgments.