Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Algeria using logistic growth and polynomial regression models

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus respiratory disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still expanding through the world since it started in Wuhan (China) on December 2019 reporting a number of more than 84.4 millions cases and 1.8 millions deaths on January 3rd 2021.In this work and to forecast the COVID-19 cases in Algeria, we used two models: the logistic growth model and the polynomial regression model using data of COVID-19 cases reported by the Algerian ministry of health from February 25th to December 2nd, 2020. Results showed that the polynomial regression model fitted better the data of COVID-19 in Algeria the Logistic model. The first model estimated the number of cases on January, 19th 2021 at 387673 cases. This model could help the Algerian authorities in the fighting against this disease.