Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na temperaturo vode v Sloveniji v 21. stoletju

Abstract

Temperatura morja, površinskih in podzemnih voda v Sloveniji kaže v zadnjih desetletjih naraščajoč trend. Predvidevamo, da bodo podnebne spremembe tudi v prihodnje prav tako vplivale na temperaturo vode, zato smo ocenili njihov vpliv do konca 21. stoletja. Na izbranih vodomernih postajah smo ocenili povezanost med homogeniziranimi nizi temperature vode in temperature zraka na primerjalnih meteoroloških postajah ter pripravili regresijske modele (linearne ali nelinearne) za oceno temperature vode. Izračunane modelske nize temperature zraka po treh podnebnih scenarijih smo vstavili v izdelane regresijske modele ter izračunali temperaturo vode do konca 21. stoletja. Analizo ocene temperature vode v Sloveniji do konca 21. stoletja smo izvedli za 57 vodomernih postaj na površinskih vodah, podzemnih vodah in na morju. Rezultati kažejo na nadaljevanje dviga povprečne letne temperature vode po vseh treh podnebnih scenarijih, predstavljena je letna in sezonska analiza sprememb temperature vode na izbranih postajah. // Climate change impacts on water temperature in Slovenia in the 21st century Water temperature of the sea, surface and ground water has an increasing trend over the last decades in Slovenia. It is presumed that future climate changes will have an impact on water temperatures, therefore the impact by the end of the century was assessed with the use of air-water temperature correlation methodology. The correlation was assessed between homogenised air and water temperature datasets on comparable meteorological and hydrological stations. Regression models were then set up to estimate the water temperature based on climate scenarios data until the end of 21st century. The analysis of water temperature by the end of 21st century was assessed for 57 stations on surface water, groundwater and at the sea. The results indicate the continuation of water temperature rise under all three climate change scenarios. The results of analysis show annual and seasonal change of water temperature for selected stations and the synthesis based on geographical characteristics.