A Study of COVID-19 Mortality Under Varying Patient Frailty

Abstract

For this study, we modeled the spread and mortality of COVID-19 throughout the city of Chicago. By incorporating group frailty into a classic SEIR infectious disease model, we were able to differentiate the population of Chicago by their response to COVID-19. Three age groups with different COVID-19-induced death rates were examined, and the model sought to showcase the multiplicative deviation of each age group death rate from the average disease-induced death rate. This adjustment for different death rates among age groups accounted for heterogeneity within the population, and sought to introduce a more accurate manner for modeling the spread of infectious diseases.