Use of epidemiology in the public space: Reconstruction of a train fire in India

Abstract

This account is the outcome of an independent investigation into the burning of a coach of the Sabarmati Express in February 2002 in Northwest India. In this fire, 59 occupants were charred to death and the initial official reports suggested that some arsonists deliberately burnt the coach. The propagation of this information and associated events resulted in large-scale violence in the state of Gujarat in India when over one thousand citizens lost their lives. This paper presents the results of a study done two years later using all the epidemiological tools available and shows that earlier reports are probably wrong and how scientific investigations can help in preserving community harmony. Epidemiological methods can be used to reconstruct events in a more reliable way than hearsay and anecdotal techniques used by laypersons. The results of the indicate that: (i) It is highly unlikely that the fire could have started on the aisle floor outside the toilet by throwing of inflammable fluid (as claimed in official reports). (ii) The resultant dense and high temperature smoke spread along the ceiling of the carriage and eventually resulted in a flashover when the fire engulfed the entire coach. (iii) Over a hundred passengers attempted to escape through a narrow exit away from the fire. Those who were not overcome by the toxic fumes of the fire could get away. The rest probably became unconscious before they could escape and were subjected to dense and toxic fumes and radiative heat, resulting in asphyxiation and death.