Adaptive operation of a reservoir in climate change condition: a case study of Maroon Dam in Iran

IF 2.1 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Mostafa Mirmehdi, M. Shourian, A. Sharafati
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Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate the climate change impacts in Maroon Basin, Iran. To investigate the impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature, and inflow in Maroon Dam, a simulation of four general circulation models (GCMs) was done in three future periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080. The results showed that the projected increased temperature would significantly reduce the runoff in the basin, despite the projected increase in rainfall. The most significant decrease of the average inflow to the Maroon Dam Reservoir in the near future of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in March 24 and 26.4%, the middle future in March 25.4 and 29%, and the far future in March 27 and 30.6%, respectively, is predicted. Also, the MADSIM model simulation results showed that the Maroon Dam Reservoir would face a water resources shortage in the future to provide maximum demands. The average water supply reliability in climate change scenarios showed that the maximum water supply of 85% in the period 2021–2040 and the minimum of 80.4% in 2061–2080 would occur in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively.
气候变化条件下水库的适应性运行——以伊朗Maroon大坝为例
本研究的目的是探讨气候变化对伊朗Maroon盆地的影响。为研究气候变化对Maroon Dam未来3个时期(2021-2040、2041-2060和2061-2080)的降雨、温度和入流的影响,对4种大气环流模式(GCMs)进行了模拟。结果表明,尽管预测降雨量增加,但预测温度升高会显著减少流域径流量。预测RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景近期平均入库量降幅最大,分别为3月24日和26.4%、3月25.4日和29%、3月27日和30.6%。同时,MADSIM模型模拟结果表明,未来褐红色大坝水库将面临水资源短缺,以提供最大需求。气候变化情景的平均供水可靠性表明,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景中,2021-2040年的供水量最大为85%,2061-2080年的供水量最小为80.4%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
0
审稿时长
20 weeks
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