Analysis and Simulation of COVID-19 Spread in Indonesia Using SIR and SIR-D Modelling with Optimization

Abstract

The emergence of the COVID-19 virus in the world and Indonesia since March 2020 has made it difficult for all elements of society. At the same time, there is one alternative solution to provide an overview to the public and the government so that they can take further action in dealing with the pandemic, that is by modeling the spread of COVID-19. One of the known disease modeling is SIR model, which is a model that divides individuals into certain groups/compartments. The SIR model and one of its derivatives, namely SIR-D, was developed to analyze and simulate several scenarios of the spread of a pandemic. There are 3 simulation scenarios made, namely a scenario without vaccination, a scenario with vaccination, and a scenario with vaccination without being accompanied by strict health protocols. The simulations of the models show that the vaccination process has an impact on reducing the spread of COVID-19, although it is less significant due to the vaccination process that is not optimal and comprehensive. Meanwhile, if the vaccination process is not carried out according to health protocols, then the spread of the pandemic will increase rapidly and form a second wave in Indonesia. This indicates that the vaccination process cannot be underestimated, and the public must continue to keep following health protocol. In general, it can be concluded that the epidemiological model used can provide an overview of the COVID-19's spread simulation with accuracy level MAPE, 0.41198 for the SIR model and 0.01712 for the SIR-D model.