Modeling and Simulation of Economic Evaluation of Regional Railway Projects in Western China Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

The ongoing research establishes the economic evaluation model of the West China Regional Railway projects based on Vensim software, then the simulation analyses concerning the model are conducted. Being the infrastructure of national economy, railway has been playing a vital role in economy and social development. Therefore, the comprehensive economic evaluation comes as a necessity due to the urgent need to guarantee the accuracy and scientificity in decision-making process of railway project investing. The system dynamics as a tool is associated with local railway projects to set up the model, and one of the projects is taken as an example to perform the simulation and analysis via Vinsem platform. The paper mainly focuses on the financial evaluation analysis of the project, through the actual simulation of the project based on the model, a comprehensive and dynamic understanding of the profitability, the debt-paying ability and the economic reasonability of the project can be obtained, additionally, the sensibility of the system is detected to seek the key factors that affecting the feasibility of the model. The result tells that: The results show that: The model is feasible and effective, the most sensitive factor is freight rate and volume.