Application of The Combined Method in Inventory Forecasting Electricity at PT PLN (Persero) ULP Sibuhuan

Abstract

The forecast of electricity consumption is a prediction of the use of electricity for the future by referring to the use of electricity in past data. Estimates of electricity consumption needs are intended to estimate how much electricity consumption is used by customers and must be provided by PT PLN (PERSERO) ULP SIBUHUAN as a provider of electrical energy services. Population growth occurs along with the development of an area, so it affects the demand for electricity and the need for electricity consumption. Load mapping must be done to maintain the continuity and distribution of electrical energy to customers. One way to preserve the continuity of service is to estimate electric power consumption using several forecasting methods. One of the methods that can be used is to combine several load forecasting methods called the combined method. The combined method is a model that incorporates various estimation methods, including econometrics, analytics, and trends, using historical customer data originating from BPS (Central Statistics Agency) Padang Lawas Regency and PT. PLN (PERSERO) ULP SIBUHUAN. The estimated load between 2021 and 2025 is 625,070,452 kWh, with an increase in electricity consumption of 20.7%, household expenses increasing by 1.8%, and business sector expenses by 1.35%. The method used is to calculate manually using Microsoft Excel to obtain forecasting values for population growth; increasing electricity consumption is very important for planning electric power generation, development, and planning of electric power distribution and mapping of loads on customers.