Exploring the correlation between votes for Bolsonaro and deaths by Covid-19 in Brazil, 2018-2022

Abstract

The article describes the following aspects regarding the pandemic of Covid-19 in Brazil: 1. the positive statistical correlation between votes for Bolsonaro in the 2018’s presidential elections and deaths caused by Covid-19, at the descriptive level of federal units; 2. the uncorrelated relation between votes for Bolsonaro and the popular adhesion to the vaccination campaign after June 2021; 3. the drop in death rates after June 2021 and the persistence of the correlation between proportional deaths and votes after it. In light of this empirical analysis, we suggest some paths for future historical and sociological research on the causal mechanisms for this apparent association.