Enhancement of the System of Statistical Indicators for Assessing the State and Prospects of Development of the Stock Market

Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994) Pub Date : 2022-02-28 DOI:10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-1-17-27

E. Dorokhov

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The article substantiates the need to improve the system of indicators that meet the requirements of market participants and potential investors in obtaining reliable and comprehensive statistical information on the state and development prospects of the Russian stock market (SM).The analysis of the current state of statistical monitoring of the Russian SM in terms of the misuse of insider information and manipulation of the financial market is carried out, statistical indicators for assessing stock assets and market indices are considered, and the main indicators of volatility and investment indicators related to the financial and economic characteristics of issuing companies are analyzed. According to the author, it is necessary to improve the quality of information on the value of stock assets and stock indices. To accomplish this task, it is proposed to use indicators that can adequately assess the current and forecast value of issuing companies and the degree of manipulation of their market quotations.The author proposes a method of calculating the investment indicator by dividing the price of the stock by its moving average profit for the previous time period equal to the economic cycle. Based on the factual material of the US and Russian stock markets, statistics of the values of this investment indicator, it is shown that it is possible to assess the adequate current and forecast value of stock assets, as well as the degree of their manipulation.The calculated investment indicator shows the adequacy of the market value of companies to their fundamental financial and economic characteristics. The volatility of this indicator for a short period of time is a signal of a possible manipulation with the prices of this stock asset. Therefore, this investment indicator can become an important supplement to the existing system of statistical indicators on the state and development of the Russian SM.

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完善评估股票市场状况和发展前景的统计指标体系

本文论证了需要完善指标体系，以满足市场参与者和潜在投资者的要求，以获得有关俄罗斯股票市场(SM)状况和发展前景的可靠和全面的统计信息。对俄罗斯SM在滥用内幕信息和操纵金融市场方面的统计监测现状进行了分析，考虑了评估股票资产和市场指数的统计指标，分析了与发行公司金融经济特征相关的波动性主要指标和投资指标。笔者认为，有必要提高股票资产价值信息和股票指数信息的质量。为了完成这一任务，建议使用能够充分评估发行公司当前价值和预测价值及其市场报价操纵程度的指标。作者提出了一种计算投资指标的方法，即用股票价格除以与经济周期相等的前一时期的移动平均利润。根据美国和俄罗斯股票市场的实际资料，统计这一投资指标的值，表明可以评估股票资产的当前价值和预测价值，以及它们的操纵程度。计算出的投资指标显示了公司的市场价值与其基本财务和经济特征的充分性。该指标在短时间内的波动是该股票资产价格可能被操纵的信号。因此，这一投资指标可以成为现有俄罗斯SM状态和发展统计指标体系的重要补充。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)

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