Evaluating Algorithmic Risk Assessment

IF 0.4 Q2 Social Sciences
Melissa Hamilton
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Algorithmic risk assessment is hailed as offering criminal justice officials a science-led system to triage offender populations to better manage low- versus high-risk individuals. Risk algorithms have reached the pretrial world as a best practices method to aid in reforms to reduce reliance upon money bail and to moderate pretrial detention’s material contribution to mass incarceration. Still, these promises are elusive if algorithmic tools are unable to achieve sufficient accurate rates in predicting criminal justice failure. This article presents an empirical study of the most popular pretrial risk tool used in the United States. Developers promote the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) as a national tool. Little information is known about the PSA’s developmental methodologies or performance statistics. The dearth of intelligence is alarming as the tool is being used in high-stakes decisions as to whether to detain individuals who have not yet been convicted of any crime. This study uncovers evidence of performance accuracy using a variety of validity metrics and, as a novel contribution, investigates the use of the tool in three diverse jurisdictions to evaluate how well the tool generalizes in real-world settings. Policy implications of the findings may be enlightening to officials, practitioners, and other stakeholders interested in pretrial justice as well as in the use of algorithmic risk across criminal justice decision points.
评估算法风险评估
算法风险评估被称赞为刑事司法官员提供了一个以科学为主导的系统,可以对罪犯群体进行分类,以更好地管理低风险与高风险的个体。风险算法已经进入审前世界,作为一种最佳做法方法,帮助进行改革,以减少对保释金的依赖,并缓和审前拘留对大规模监禁的实质性贡献。然而,如果算法工具在预测刑事司法失败方面无法达到足够的准确率,这些承诺就难以实现。本文提出了在美国使用的最流行的审前风险工具的实证研究。开发商将公共安全评估(PSA)推广为一种全国性的工具。关于PSA的开发方法或性能统计数据知之甚少。情报的缺乏令人担忧,因为这种工具被用于高风险的决策,比如是否拘留尚未被定罪的个人。本研究利用各种有效性指标揭示了性能准确性的证据,并作为一项新颖的贡献,调查了该工具在三个不同司法管辖区的使用情况,以评估该工具在现实世界环境中的泛化程度。研究结果的政策含义可能对官员、从业人员和其他对审前司法以及在刑事司法决策点上使用算法风险感兴趣的利益攸关方具有启发意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
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期刊介绍: Focused on examinations of crime and punishment in domestic, transnational, and international contexts, New Criminal Law Review provides timely, innovative commentary and in-depth scholarly analyses on a wide range of criminal law topics. The journal encourages a variety of methodological and theoretical approaches and is a crucial resource for criminal law professionals in both academia and the criminal justice system. The journal publishes thematic forum sections and special issues, full-length peer-reviewed articles, book reviews, and occasional correspondence.
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