Diffusion of nationalist voting in Scotland and Wales: emulation, contagion, and retrenchment

Abstract

The contagious diffusion of voting support has been suggested in previous research as one factor affecting electoral decisions. An analysis of the support received by the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales in the last six general elections found further evidence that geographical location was important. Particularly for Scotland, later support was geographically proximate to previous areas of nationalist strength. This positive indication of contagious diffusion and contagious retrenchment was present when some controls for socio-economic characteristics of the individual constituencies and the intervention of other parties were included in a multivariate analysis.