Trend Analysis of Climatic Variables and their Possible Impact on the Health of People in Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

Climate variability has significant implications for human health, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the two. The present study examines the trend analysis of climatic variables, and their possible impacts on health and identifies specific challenges faced by the people of Himachal Pradesh, India. The Mann-Kendall test, a non-parametric test, was used to examine temperature and rainfall trends. A survey was conducted to gauge public awareness regarding climate change and its health risks in the region. The study analysed weather patterns over 10 years, revealing fluctuating temperatures with the hottest years being 2012, 2015-17. Rainfall exhibited irregular patterns with less rainfall in 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2019. Trend analysis showed significant temperature trends in Dharamshala and Kangra. Weather-related incidents and fatalities peaked during 2012-14, while diseases, such as acute respiratory infections (ARI), asthma, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, and vector and water-borne diseases saw an increase over the decade. The survey results showed that the people of this region suffered mostly from respiratory problems, water-borne diseases and mental health issues. This study contributes to the existing knowledge by establishing a possible relationship between climate variability and the health of the people. Furthermore, it also provides a health database, facilitating the formulation of targeted interventions to address health-related challenges arising from the observed changes in weather patterns.