Comparison of Risk Scores for the Prediction of Outcomes after Surgery for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection

Abstract

We compared the performance of four existing risk models and a newly developed risk score for type A acute aortic dissection surgery. In 327 consecutives with type A aortic dissection surgery patients during 2003/03-2017/03 at our centre, operative mortality occurred in 65 (19.9%). Independent predictors of operative mortality were critical pre-operative state and malperfusion syndrome, and a novel additive “CritMal” Score was constructed from this. C-statistics (95% confidence interval) for operative mortality were EuroSCORE 0.60 (0.52-0.67), EuroSCORE II 0.64 (0.57-0.72), Rampoldi 0.68 (0.59-0.76), Leontyev 0.56 (0.48-0.64), and CritMal 0.72 (0.64-0.80) respectively. This is the first study externally assessing surgical scores for aortic dissection surgery, with modest accuracy for all and moderate for CritMal. There is room for improvement of these risk models, and further refinements and external validation are warranted for clinical application.