Spatial patterns in Brazilian state legislative elections

Abstract

Abstract In this paper we explore spatial patterns in voting behavior of the Brazilian electorate in the state legislative elections of 2014. With data aggregated at the municipality level, we employ a Beta regression model augmented with spatially correlated random effects to model the share of votes received by the three largest political parties: PMDB, PSDB, and PT. Results suggest PT is more preferred by the electorate in poorer and more densely populated areas, specially in states of the Northwest and South regions, while PSDB performs better in municipalities with relatively higher standards of living. Also, analysis of the spatial random effects indicates this component is especially important to account for the major stylized fact that is the simultaneous PSDB hegemony and relative lack of PMDB presence in the state of São Paulo.