Interregional Differences in Inflation through the Prism of Ackley’s Theory

Abstract

In Russia inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), varies greatly from region to region. This study aims to find an answer to the following question: does there exist a long-term, equilibrium relationship between these differences and interregional differences in the cost of production, delivery and sale of domestic goods and the cost of imported goods? This research question stems from the markup theory of inflation proposed by G. Ackley, who assumed that inflation is a markup on the cost of labor and materials and the cost of living imposed, respectively, by firms and workers to protect profits and wages. Our empirical model of regional CPI includes the unit labor cost, the cost of freight and the cost of imported goods (all in index form). Econometrically, the model is an error-correction model derived from the ARDL model. The pooled mean group estimator is used to estimate the model’s parameters for a panel of 80 regions for the years 2000–2020. Our results do not reject the hypothesis of long-run homogeneity. For a given level of inflation, an increase in unit labor costs would cause prices to adjust completely in the long run, leaving the markup unchanged. Although Ackley’s theory calls for controlling the markup with the usual instruments of monetary and fiscal policies, it finds them inadequate and allows to conclude that regional authorities are able to contain price increases through industrial policy.