Impacts of climatic change and database information design on the water-energy-food nexus in water-scarce regions

Abstract

The objective of this paper was three-fold. The paper highlights the synergies and tradeoffs in the interconnectedness of water-energy-food (WEF) for the agricultural corridor of North-South Al-Batinah, Sultanate of Oman. The study further evaluates the impacts of climate change on the WEF nexus. The results show that by 2099, Al-Batinah’s mean temperature will range from 2.0 to 3.5 °C and 1.0 to 2.5 °C for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively, when compared to 1986–2005 historical simulations. From a precipitation standpoint, the analysis showed drier January and February months with significant heavy precipitation events in March for both scenarios when compared with the historical simulations. Thus, the significance and findings of this study further indicate there will be a persistent reduction in water availability which can affect crop yield. The excess wetness in March can lead to extreme climatic events such as flooding and inundation of farmlands. These impacts can trickle down to affect other links in the nexus such as the energy and food supply as well as Tanfeedh plans for economic diversification in agriculture and fisheries proposed by the central government. The study also recognizes the importance of data gaps and various sources of available data that could be integrated for improved planning and decision making. Therefore, a database system using the Unified Model Language was proposed. This platform, when implemented, will help Oman’s efforts in the next decade in strengthening the links between the WEF nexus, meeting the nexus’s demands as a result of climate change, population growth, etc., and also achieving sustainable development goals.