Assessing the Possible Influences of the Russia – Ukraine War on Economic Growth

Abstract

Abstract Against the background of a major insecurity event with strong economic and social repercussions, more and more analyses, simulations and attempts are being made to identify possible developments and consequences. The experience of previous conflicts and the results of the models and scenarios used to estimate the trajectories and disruptions caused by conflicts help with the decision-making process, but the variables in the peace equation are numerous and increase the degree of uncertainty in what regards the impact of the economic, social and security policies adopted. Through the prism of developments in the current geopolitical and security environment, with prospects of profound change after the end of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the paper highlights some of the economic effects of the Russia – Ukraine war and highlights its possible influences on economic growth at regional and global level, and also analyses growth in the states directly involved in the war or that are connected in various forms (economically-wise, neighbouring countries, etc.) with the two states.