ENSO in a Changing Climate

C. Karamperidou, M. Stuecker, A. Timmermann, K. Yun, Sun‐Seon Lee, F. Jin, A. Santoso, M. Mcphaden, W. Cai
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a naturally occurring climate fluctuation, which originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide (Goddard and Dilley 2005; McPhaden et al. 2006). Despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to ENSO variability (e.g., Collins et al. 2010), it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency or character of events will change in the coming decades (Vecchi and Wittenberg 2010). As changes in ENSO have the potential to be one of the largest manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, this status has profound impacts on the reliability of regional attribution of climate variability and change. Two main reasons can be invoked for these shortcomings. First there is a lack of long and comprehensive enough observations of the various ENSO processes to be able to detect past changes. It may be that we need to observe ENSO for another several decades to detect and attribute significant ENSO changes (Wittenberg 2009; Stevenson et al. 2012). Second, as ENSO involves a complex interplay of numerous ocean and atmospheric processes, accurately modeling this climate phenomenon with CGCMs, and understanding, anticipating, and predicting its behaviour on seasonal to decadal and longer time scales still pose formidable challenges (Guilyardi et al. 2009). Even though the ability of CGCMs to simulate El Niño has largely improved over the last few years, the diversity of model simulations of present-day El Niño characteristics indicate current limitations in our ability to model this climate phenomenon and anticipate changes in its properties on short and long time scales.
气候变化中的ENSO
El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)现象是一种自然发生的气候波动,它起源于热带太平洋地区,影响全球的生态系统、农业、淡水供应、飓风和其他恶劣天气事件(Goddard and Dilley 2005;McPhaden et al. 2006)。尽管我们对气候变化对导致ENSO变率的许多过程的影响的理解取得了相当大的进展(例如,Collins等人,2010),但尚无法确定ENSO活动是否会增强或减弱,或者未来几十年ENSO活动的频率或特征是否会发生变化(Vecchi和Wittenberg, 2010)。由于ENSO的变化有可能成为人为气候变化的最大表现之一,这种状态对气候变率和变化的区域归因的可靠性具有深远的影响。这些缺点有两个主要原因。首先,缺乏对各种ENSO过程的长期和全面的观测,无法探测到过去的变化。我们可能需要再观察ENSO几十年,以探测和归因于显著的ENSO变化(Wittenberg 2009;Stevenson et al. 2012)。其次,由于ENSO涉及许多海洋和大气过程的复杂相互作用,用cccms准确地模拟这种气候现象,并理解、预测和预测其在季节到十年和更长时间尺度上的行为仍然构成巨大的挑战(Guilyardi et al. 2009)。尽管在过去几年中,cccms模拟El Niño的能力有了很大的提高,但当前El Niño特征的模式模拟的多样性表明,我们目前在模拟这种气候现象和预测其短期和长期性质变化方面的能力存在局限性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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