The aggregate production profile for U.S. crude oil

Abstract

In this paper the aggregate production profile for U.S. crude oil is estimated for the period 1961 to 1985. When reserve data is used, a significant lag is found between the time that reserves are added and production peaks. This long lag can be attributed to a system of production controls that existed until about 1970. When the profile is re-estimated over the period from 1970 to 1985, there is a much shorter period between reserve additions and peak production. An alternative approach based on drilling data gives similar results for the entire sample period but different results for the subperiod 1970–1985. Factors that are responsible for the general shapes of the profiles are discussed