Willingness to Purchase a House during Economic Lost Decades in Japanese Urban Housing Market

Abstract

The willingness to purchase a house is closely related to previous experiences with housing market changes. This paper establishes the variable effects of willingness to purchase a house based on experience to analyze how experience with the Lost Decade (1991 to 2001) in Japan has influenced its housing market. This study finds that when the regional house-price levels are less deviated from those of Tokyo, willingness to purchase a house is relatively higher, which inhibits the growth of rent prices. Grouping data into urban and non-urban areas shows that the negative impact of willingness to purchase a house is higher in non-urban areas. This indicates an urban–rural gap in the country and house prices in the urban areas can self-adjust so that willingness to purchase a house does not reflect significantly on the rental market. Experience with the cumulative house prices of each prefecture from 1985 to 2015 relative to the Tokyo standard is calculated for deviation to determine whether the cumulative experience of long-term past losses could be used to analyze divergence in the regional housing markets.