Norsyahidah Zulkarnain, Muhammad Salihi Abdul Hadi, N. Mohammad, I. Shogar
{"title":"Fitting Time-varying Coefficients SEIRD Model to COVID-19 Cases in Malaysia","authors":"Norsyahidah Zulkarnain, Muhammad Salihi Abdul Hadi, N. Mohammad, I. Shogar","doi":"10.11113/ijic.v13n1.397","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death (SEIRD) model for COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. This extended model is more relevant to describe the disease transmission than the SIRD model since the exposed (E) compartment represents individuals in the disease's incubation period. The mathematical model is a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with time-varying coefficients as opposed to the conventional model with constant coefficients. This time dependency treatment is necessary as the epidemiological parameters such as infection rate β, recovery rate γ, and death rate μ usually change over time. However, this feature leads to an increasing number of unknowns needed to be solved to fit the model with the actual data. Several optimization algorithms under Python’s LMfit package, such as Levenberg-Marquardt, Nelder-Mead, Trust-Region Reflective and Sequential Linear Squares Programming; are employed to estimate the related parameters, in such that the numerical solution of the ODEs will fit the data with the slightest error. Nelder-Mead outperforms the other optimization algorithm with the least error. Qualitatively, the result shows that the proportion of the quarantine rule-abiding population should be maintained up to 90% to ensure Malaysia successfully reaches disease-free or endemic equilibrium.","PeriodicalId":50314,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Innovative Computing Information and Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Innovative Computing Information and Control","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.11113/ijic.v13n1.397","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper proposes a compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death (SEIRD) model for COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. This extended model is more relevant to describe the disease transmission than the SIRD model since the exposed (E) compartment represents individuals in the disease's incubation period. The mathematical model is a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with time-varying coefficients as opposed to the conventional model with constant coefficients. This time dependency treatment is necessary as the epidemiological parameters such as infection rate β, recovery rate γ, and death rate μ usually change over time. However, this feature leads to an increasing number of unknowns needed to be solved to fit the model with the actual data. Several optimization algorithms under Python’s LMfit package, such as Levenberg-Marquardt, Nelder-Mead, Trust-Region Reflective and Sequential Linear Squares Programming; are employed to estimate the related parameters, in such that the numerical solution of the ODEs will fit the data with the slightest error. Nelder-Mead outperforms the other optimization algorithm with the least error. Qualitatively, the result shows that the proportion of the quarantine rule-abiding population should be maintained up to 90% to ensure Malaysia successfully reaches disease-free or endemic equilibrium.
期刊介绍:
The primary aim of the International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control (IJICIC) is to publish high-quality papers of new developments and trends, novel techniques and approaches, innovative methodologies and technologies on the theory and applications of intelligent systems, information and control. The IJICIC is a peer-reviewed English language journal and is published bimonthly