Noise Trading, Investor Sentiment Volatility, and Stock Returns

Abstract

This article analyzes the mechanism of investor sentiment impact on stock price based on the noise trading theory of Delong et al. The market turn over, close-end fund discount, and growth rate of investor accounts are chosen as indirect investor sentiment index to construct comprehensive sentiment index on the basis of factor analysis approach. The relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns in China's stock markets is tested using the regression method of ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean model (GARCH-M). The results show that investor sentiment is a systematic factor in forming stock prices. Stock price fluctuates with the fluctuation of investor sentiment, but the impact due to positive and negative investor sentiment changes is different. The impact of positive changes is stronger than that of passive changes. The volatility of stock returns caused by investor sentiment changes is a systematic risk.