Statistical Connections between Large-Scale Climate Indices and Observed Mean and Extreme Temperatures in the US from 1948 to 2018

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
J. Giovannettone
{"title":"Statistical Connections between Large-Scale Climate Indices and Observed Mean and Extreme Temperatures in the US from 1948 to 2018","authors":"J. Giovannettone","doi":"10.3390/earth4030027","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to the frequency and intensity of heat waves and overall changes in temperature throughout the United States (US), correlations between long-term monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures throughout the contiguous US on the one hand and low-frequency variability of multiple climate indices (CIs) on the other hand are analyzed for the period from 1948 to 2018. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to assess correlation strength, while leave-one-out cross-validation and a bootstrapping technique (p-value) are used to address potential serial and spurious correlations and assess the significance of each correlation. Three parameters defined the sliding windows over which surface temperature and CI values were averaged: window size, lag time between the temperature and CI windows, and the beginning month of the temperature window. A 60-month sliding window size and 0 lag time resulted in the highest correlations overall; beginning months were optimized on an individual site basis. High (r ≥ 0.60) and significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibited the strongest links to temperatures in the western US, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to temperatures in the central US, the WHWP to temperatures throughout much of the eastern US, and atmospheric patterns over the northern Atlantic to temperatures in the Northeast and Southeast. The final results were compared to results from previous studies focused on precipitation and coastal sea levels. Regional consistency was found regarding links between the northern Atlantic and overall weather and coastal sea levels in the Northeast and Southeast as well as on weather in the upper Midwest. Though the MJO and WHWP revealed dominant links with precipitation and temperature, respectively, throughout the West, ENSO revealed consistent links to sea levels and surface temperatures along the West Coast. These results help to focus future research on specific mechanisms of large-scale climate variability linked to US regional climate variability and prediction potential.","PeriodicalId":51020,"journal":{"name":"Earth Interactions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth Interactions","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/earth4030027","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to the frequency and intensity of heat waves and overall changes in temperature throughout the United States (US), correlations between long-term monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures throughout the contiguous US on the one hand and low-frequency variability of multiple climate indices (CIs) on the other hand are analyzed for the period from 1948 to 2018. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to assess correlation strength, while leave-one-out cross-validation and a bootstrapping technique (p-value) are used to address potential serial and spurious correlations and assess the significance of each correlation. Three parameters defined the sliding windows over which surface temperature and CI values were averaged: window size, lag time between the temperature and CI windows, and the beginning month of the temperature window. A 60-month sliding window size and 0 lag time resulted in the highest correlations overall; beginning months were optimized on an individual site basis. High (r ≥ 0.60) and significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibited the strongest links to temperatures in the western US, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to temperatures in the central US, the WHWP to temperatures throughout much of the eastern US, and atmospheric patterns over the northern Atlantic to temperatures in the Northeast and Southeast. The final results were compared to results from previous studies focused on precipitation and coastal sea levels. Regional consistency was found regarding links between the northern Atlantic and overall weather and coastal sea levels in the Northeast and Southeast as well as on weather in the upper Midwest. Though the MJO and WHWP revealed dominant links with precipitation and temperature, respectively, throughout the West, ENSO revealed consistent links to sea levels and surface temperatures along the West Coast. These results help to focus future research on specific mechanisms of large-scale climate variability linked to US regional climate variability and prediction potential.
1948 - 2018年美国大尺度气候指数与观测到的平均和极端温度之间的统计联系
为了更好地了解全球气候变率与热浪频率和强度以及整个美国(US)整体温度变化的联系程度,分析了1948 - 2018年期间美国连续地区长期月平均、最低和最高温度与多个气候指数(CIs)低频变率之间的相关性。皮尔逊相关系数用于评估相关强度,而留一交叉验证和自举技术(p值)用于解决潜在的序列和虚假相关性,并评估每个相关性的显著性。三个参数定义了表面温度和CI值的平均滑动窗口:窗口大小,温度和CI窗口之间的滞后时间,以及温度窗口的开始月份。60个月的滑动窗口大小和0滞后时间导致总体相关性最高;开始的几个月是在单个站点的基础上进行优化的。高相关性(r≥0.60)和显著相关性(p值≤0.05)。西半球暖池(WHWP)和厄尔尼诺Niño/南方涛动(ENSO)与美国西部温度、热带大西洋海面温度与美国中部温度、西半球暖池与美国东部大部分地区温度、北大西洋大气模式与东北部和东南部温度的联系最强。最后的结果与之前关注降水和沿海海平面的研究结果进行了比较。研究发现,北大西洋与整体天气、东北部和东南部沿海海平面以及中西部北部天气之间的联系具有区域一致性。尽管MJO和WHWP分别显示与整个西部的降水和温度有主要联系,但ENSO显示与西海岸的海平面和表面温度有一致的联系。这些结果有助于将未来的研究重点放在与美国区域气候变率相关的大尺度气候变率的具体机制和预测潜力上。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Earth Interactions
Earth Interactions 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Publishes research on the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, including, but not limited to, research on human impacts, such as land cover change, irrigation, dams/reservoirs, urbanization, pollution, and landslides. Earth Interactions is a joint publication of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association of Geographers.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信