Early Prediction of Patient Mortality Based on Routine Laboratory Tests and Predictive Models in Critically Ill Patients

Abstract

We propose a method for quantitative analysis of predictive power of laboratory tests and early detection of mortality risk by usage of predictive models and feature selection techniques. Our method allows automatic feature selection, model selection, and evalu- ation of predictive models. Experimental evaluation was conducted on patients with renal failure admitted to ICUs (medical intensive care, surgical intensive care, cardiac, and cardiac surgery recovery units) at Boston’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. Data are extracted from Multi parameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. We built and evaluated different single (e.g. Logistic regression) and ensemble (e.g. Random Forest) learning methods. Results revealed high predictive accuracy (area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) values >86%) from day four, with acceptable results on the second (>81%) and third day (>85%). Random forests seem to provide the best predictive accuracy. Feature selection techniques Gini and ReliefF scored best in most cases. Lactate, white blood cells, sodium, anion gap, chloride, bicar - bonate, creatinine, urea nitrogen, potassium, glucose, INR, hemoglobin, phosphate, total bilirubin, and base excess were most predictive for hospital mortality. Ensemble learn- ing methods are able to predict hospital mortality with high accuracy, based on laboratory tests and provide ranking in predictive priority.