Forecasting the Occurrence of Rainfall in Selected Weather Stations in the Wet and Dry Zones of Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan Journal of Physics Pub Date : 2002-12-01 DOI:10.4038/SLJP.V3I0.184

Hkwi Perera, D. Sonnadara, Jayewardene

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引用次数: 14

Abstract

st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} Two models were developed based on the Markov method to predict the occurrence of rainfall. Daily rainfall data from 9 meteorology stations in Sri Lanka namely, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kandy, Galle, Hambanthota, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Badulla and Trincomalee were analysed using these models. The results show that the models can forecast the status of a given day at an average of 73%. Higher agreement is seen for stations in the dry zone of Sri Lanka when compared with those in the wet zone. No significant difference was observed between the results obtained using the 1 st order Markov process and the 2 nd order Markov process. The models were not sensitive to the range of data used or the short-term fluctuations. doi:10.4038/sljp.v3i0.184 Sri Lankan Journal of Physics, Vol.3 (2002) 39-52

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斯里兰卡干湿地区选定气象站的降雨预报

st1\:*{behavior:url(# ieoui)} /*样式定义*/表。mso-style-name:"Table Normal";mso-tstyle-rowband-size: 0;mso-tstyle-colband-size: 0;mso-style-noshow:是的;mso-style-parent:“”;Mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin: 0厘米;mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;字体大小:10.0分;font-family:宋体;mso-ansi-language: # 0400;mso-fareast-language: # 0400;基于马尔可夫方法建立了两个模型来预测降雨的发生。利用这些模型分析了斯里兰卡9个气象站(科伦坡、拉特纳普拉、康提、加勒、汉班托塔、巴蒂克洛亚、阿努拉德普勒、巴杜拉和亭可马里)的日降雨量数据。结果表明，该模型预测某一天天气状况的平均准确率为73%。斯里兰卡干燥地区的气象站与潮湿地区的气象站相比，一致性更高。使用一阶马尔可夫过程和二阶马尔可夫过程得到的结果没有显著差异。这些模型对所用数据的范围或短期波动不敏感。doi:10.4038/sljp.v3i0.184斯里兰卡物理学报Vol.3 (2002) 39-52

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Sri Lankan Journal of Physics

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