Analysing factors influencing fire frequency in Hwange National Park

Abstract

ABSTRACT Detection of key factors driving fire frequency, especially in protected areas, is important for effective management of ecosystems. In this study, we used Generalized Linear Models to test the contribution of natural (NDVI, wind speed, dry matter productivity, soil moisture, percentage tree cover, elevation and temperature) and anthropogenic (distance from settlements) factors as predictors of fire frequency in Hwange National Park and adjacent areas. We used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to evaluate the variable contribution to fire frequency. The model results indicated that all the variables that were used contributed significantly to fire recurrence (p < 0.05). Distance from settlements contributed the most to the model whilst dry matter productivity and annual average temperature were second and third respectively. Removal of distance from settlements from the model increased the AIC value to 1411.2 while removal of dry matter productivity and temperature resulted in AICs of 1269.9 and 1265.8 respectively. Results showed that settlements which are found in the vicinity of the protected area influence the recurrence of fires. Findings from this study can be used for strategic fire management and for the development of effective measures to minimize fire recurrence in a protected area.