Establishing a Simple-yet-effective Approach of Early Warning System for Storm-Induced Earth-Filled Dam-Break Cases in Data-sparse Region

Abstract

Historically, the occurrence of dam-break cases has been proven to cause significant loss of life and economical damage. Apart from the catastrophic nature of dam-breaks, the absence of a robust disaster prevention system exacerbates the disasters that occur. This study proposes an Early Warning System (EWS) to mitigate the impact of dam-break disasters. However, predicting the occurrence of such disasters is challenging, specifically in areas like Indonesia, where comprehensive data recording is lacking. While it may be difficult to predict the occurrence of a sunny day break, the storm-induced break is more predictable. Therefore, this study proposes a simple yet effective macro-based EWS for Earth-Filled Dam-Break Cases using a macro approach based on the Evacuation Clearance Time (ECT). By comparing the ECT value with the arrival time of the floods from the affected areas, additional evacuation time can be obtained, which will be used to determine the EWS. The proposed EWS for Cengklik Dam is given in three levels of warning indicated by the reservoir water level at +141.36 m, +141.40 m, and +141.45 m. With the proposed EWS, the results show that 100% of people are expected to reach the evacuation point safely. The case study shows that the proposed EWS can significantly reduce the risk impact of the dam-break events.