{"title":"How Likely Is an Economic Depression?","authors":"C. Sarmiento","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3549671","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with different distributional assumptions to forecast GDP contraction severities and identify the likelihood of a depression threshold event across main Latin American countries. We compare these results to similar hypothetical events for U.S., U.K., France, and Canada.","PeriodicalId":11495,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Forecasting eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Forecasting eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3549671","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper uses a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with different distributional assumptions to forecast GDP contraction severities and identify the likelihood of a depression threshold event across main Latin American countries. We compare these results to similar hypothetical events for U.S., U.K., France, and Canada.