Primary Fiscal Performance, Economic Growth, and Public Debt in Lebanon

IF 2.4 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economics Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI:10.5709/CE.1897-9254.443

Carole Ibrahim

引用次数: 3

Abstract

Lebanese public debt has been accumulating since 1990, after the end of the civil war. Recently, concerns about the ability of the government to keep servicing its debt have emerged, particularly because the debt-to-GDP ratio reached almost 147% at the end of 2018. This study aims to examine whether a cointegrating relationship exists among primary fiscal performance, real economic growth, and public debt in Lebanon using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model between 2000 and 2018. The ARDL results suggest the non-existence of a cointegrating relationship and hence the unsustainability of the Lebanese public debt. The evidence of the short-run estimation indicates that better primary fiscal performance and a higher economic growth rate reduce Lebanese public debt in the short run. This study proposes that immediate reforms that increase the primary fiscal surplus and attract investors are crucial to prevent a debt crisis in the country.

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黎巴嫩的主要财政绩效、经济增长和公共债务

自1990年内战结束以来，黎巴嫩的公共债务一直在累积。最近，人们开始担心政府是否有能力继续偿还债务，尤其是考虑到2018年底债务与gdp之比接近147%。本研究旨在利用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型，检验2000年至2018年间黎巴嫩的主要财政绩效、实体经济增长和公共债务之间是否存在协整关系。ARDL的结果表明，协整关系不存在，因此黎巴嫩公共债务不可持续。短期估计的证据表明，较好的初级财政业绩和较高的经济增长率在短期内减少了黎巴嫩的公共债务。本研究提出，立即进行增加基本财政盈余和吸引投资者的改革对于防止该国发生债务危机至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Contemporary Economics is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research in economics, finance, accounting and management with the noticeable contribution and impact to the development of those disciplines and preferably with practice relevancies. All entirety of methods is desirable, including a falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of a theory, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication that clarifies the boundaries or range of a theory for theoretical research as well as qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, meta-analytic, and combination for an empirical research. This clear priority for comprehensive manuscripts containing a methodology-based theoretical and empirical research with implications and recommendations for policymaking does not exclude manuscripts entirely focused on theory or methodology. Manuscripts that raise significant, actual topics of international relevance will be highly appreciated. The interdisciplinary approach including – besides economic, financial, accounting or managerial –also other aspects, is welcomed.