Dynamics and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes Using Geospatial Techniques in Abelti Watershed, Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopia is a growing country which is in need of scientific ground for land use planning and agricultural-based economy. Evaluation of land use/land cover (LULC) changes helps for proper scheduling and use of natural resources with safe administration in accordance with time and dynamic population growth of the country, specifically in the study area. One of the detailed and useful ways to develop land use evaluation and classification maps is the use of geospatial techniques such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). The main focus of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Abelti Watershed, Omo-Gibe River basin, Ethiopia. Maximum likelihood algorithm approach supervised classification method was used for identifying the LULC changes using satellite data to know LULC changes in the watershed. Quantifications of spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes were accomplished by using three satellite images of 2000, 2010, and 2017 and classifying them via a supervised classification algorithm by using Earth Resources and Development System (ERDAS) software and finally applying the postclassification change detection technique was performed by using ArcGIS 10.3. From the LULC analysis, the increase was observed in the agricultural area and settlement area from 2000 to 2017. On the other hand, shrub land followed a declining trend during the study period. However, forest and bare land followed variable trends during the study period in which forest declined from 2000 to 2010 but increased from 2010 to 2017 and bare land increased from 2000 to 2010 and declined from 2010 to 2017. Generally, the driving force behind this change was population growth, rapid urbanization, and deforestation which resulted in a wide range of environmental impacts, including degraded habitat quality in the watershed.