Epidemic cycle induced by intervention in a susceptibility-structured population

Abstract

Epidemics of infectious diseases have been known to recur in time. Diseases like influenza, despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, continue to persist intermittently in the population. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model with the hypothesis that intervention drives epidemic cycles. Intervention indeed is found to induce cycles of epidemic activity. Above a minimum intervention rate, however, activity dies out in finite time. The susceptibility structure of a community could be easily infused into the design of existing surveillance protocols. By tracking that structure, early detection of an impending outbreak is enhanced.