Niche models for British plants and lichens obtained using an ensemble approach

P. Henrys, S. Smart, E. Rowe, S. Jarvis, Z. Fang, Chris D. Evans, Bridget A. Emmett, Adam Butler
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引用次数: 13

Abstract

Abstract Site-occupancy models that predict habitat suitability for plant species in relation to measurable environmental factors can be useful for conservation planning. Such models can be derived from large-scale presence–absence datasets on the basis of environmental observations or, where only floristic data are available, using plant trait values averaged across a plot. However, the estimated modelled relationship between species presence and environmental variables depends on the type of statistical model adopted and hence can introduce additional uncertainty. Authors used an ensemble-modelling approach to constrain and quantify the uncertainty because of the choice of statistical model, applying generalised linear models (GLM), generalised additive models (GAM), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Niche models were derived for over 1000 species of vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens, representing a large proportion of the British flora and many species occurring in continental Europe. Each model predicts habitat suitability for a species in response to climate variables and trait-based scores (evaluated excluding the species being modelled) for soil pH, fertility, wetness and canopy height. An R package containing the fitted models for each species is presented which allows the user to predict the habitat suitability of a given set of conditions for a particular species. Further functions within the package are included so that these habitat suitability scores can be plotted in relation to individual explanatory variables. A simple case study shows how the R package (MultiMOVE) can be used quickly and efficiently to answer questions of scientific interest, specifically whether climate change will counteract any benefits of sheep-grazing for a particular plant community. The package itself is freely available via http://doi.org/10.5285/94ae1a5a-2a28-4315-8d4b-35ae964fc3b9.
利用集成方法获得的英国植物和地衣的生态位模型
利用场地占用模型预测植物物种与可测量环境因子之间的生境适宜性,可用于保护规划。这种模型可以基于环境观测的大规模存在-缺失数据集,或者在只有区系数据可用的情况下,使用整块地的平均植物性状值。然而,估计的物种存在与环境变量之间的模型关系取决于所采用的统计模型的类型,因此可能引入额外的不确定性。作者使用集成建模方法来约束和量化由于选择统计模型而产生的不确定性,应用广义线性模型(GLM)、广义加性模型(GAM)和多元自适应回归样条(MARS)。建立了1000多种维管植物、苔藓植物和地衣的生态位模型,这些植物代表了英国植物区系的很大一部分和欧洲大陆的许多物种。每个模型都根据气候变量和基于土壤pH值、肥力、湿度和冠层高度的特征评分(不包括被建模的物种)来预测物种的栖息地适宜性。一个R包包含了每个物种的拟合模型,它允许用户预测特定物种在给定条件下的栖息地适宜性。包内的其他功能也包括在内,因此这些栖息地适宜性得分可以绘制与个体解释变量的关系。一个简单的案例研究展示了R包(MultiMOVE)如何快速有效地用于回答科学兴趣的问题,特别是气候变化是否会抵消放牧对特定植物群落的任何好处。该软件包本身可以通过http://doi.org/10.5285/94ae1a5a-2a28-4315-8d4b-35ae964fc3b9免费获得。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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