Assessment of the Mining Technology Influence to the Level of Seismic Activity by Geomechanical Modeling and Field Observations Data

Abstract

Based on a retrospective analysis, an original approach was verified that allows establishing quantitative relationships between the parameters of deterministic and stochastic processes of various physical nature. The approach consists in revealation of statistically significant correlations between long time series of key parameters of these processes, recorded in different spatial regions of target object. Within the framework of this approach, a space-time analysis of technogenic seismicity (hypocenter coordinates, time and energy of weak and moderate dynamic events) at the Tashtagol iron ore deposit was performed in conjunction with geomechanical modeling of the stress field evolution due to mining. Using the obtained correlation dependences between the number of dynamic events and the integral characteristic of the stress state, a forecast was made for the number of dynamic events in different areas of the geomechanical space of the deposit under various mining technologies. Comparison of the results shows that due to backfill array construction, as a rule, the level of seismic activity decreases.