Milk price changes in Poland in the context of the Common Agricultural Policy

IF 1.9 4区经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika Pub Date : 2020-01-27 DOI:10.17221/178/2019-agricecon

P. Bórawski, Marta Guth, W. Truszkowski, D. Zuzek, A. Bełdycka-Bórawska, B. Mickiewicz, E. Szymańska, J. Harper, J. W. Dunn

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引用次数: 13

Abstract

Changes in the retail prices of pasteurised milk, purchase prices, and the price relationship between retail prices for pasteurised milk and other food products are analysed for Poland during the period from 2004–2018. In addition, the paper presents factors affecting changes in milk prices in Poland and characterises the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the milk market. The adoption of a long period of analysis allows for the study of periods of both high and low variability. The data analysis uses various methods including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Autoregressive-Moving-Average Model (ARMA). The milk market showed significant response because it was one of the few that was strongly administered by the European Union. These policies led to a significant increase in milk prices in the analysed period. The average price of pasteurised food milk increased by 63% in 2003–2015, and the purchase farm price of milk increased by 91.74%. The situation changed when the production limits were eliminated after 2015. In the initial period after quotas ended, the price of milk decreased and then increased. Similar changes were observed in other EU countries. Even short-term fluctuations associated with economic crises did not significantly affect the milk market.

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在共同农业政策的背景下波兰牛奶价格的变化

分析了2004-2018年期间波兰巴氏杀菌奶零售价格的变化、采购价格以及巴氏杀菌奶零售价格与其他食品之间的价格关系。此外，本文提出了影响波兰牛奶价格变化的因素，并介绍了共同农业政策(CAP)对牛奶市场的影响。采用长周期的分析可以同时研究高变异性和低变异性的周期。数据分析使用了多种方法，包括增强迪基-富勒(ADF)检验和自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)。牛奶市场表现出明显的反应，因为它是少数几个受到欧盟严格管理的市场之一。在分析期间，这些政策导致牛奶价格大幅上涨。2003-2015年，巴氏杀菌食品奶的平均价格上涨了63%，牛奶的收购农场价格上涨了91.74%。2015年以后，生产限制被取消，情况发生了变化。在配额结束后的最初一段时间里，牛奶的价格先是下降，然后上升。其他欧盟国家也出现了类似的变化。即使是与经济危机相关的短期波动也没有显著影响牛奶市场。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika Agricultural Economics & Policy-

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

4.50%

发文量

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： An international peer-reviewed journal published under the auspices of the Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences and financed by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic. Published since 1954 (by 1999 under the title Zemědělská ekonomika).Thematic scope: original scientific papers dealing with agricultural subjects from the sphere of economics, management, informatics, ecology, social economy and sociology. Since 1993 the papers continually treat problems which were published in the journal Sociologie venkova a zemědělství until now. An extensive scope of subjects in fact covers the whole of agribusiness, that means economic relations of suppliers and producers of inputs for agriculture and food industry, problems from the aspects of social economy and rural sociology and finally the economics of the population nutrition. Papers are published in English.