Application of Weighted Markov SCGM(1,1)c Model to Predict Drought Crop Area

Abstract

The prediction of drought crop area is the basis of agricultural development in our country. According to grey system theory and Markov chain principle, applying a single gene system cloud grey SCGM(1,1)_c model to fit the development tendency of the few time series, its error index is stochastically fluctuated. Markov chain method is suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process, selecting weighted Markov chain to predict the error index. Combining the advantages of the two models, we found a weighted SCGM(1,1)_c model for drought crop area prediction, and the new model is suitable for forecasting such kinds of system with in a short time, with few data, and stochastic fluctuating dynamic process. The example shows that the weighted SCGM(1,1)_c model can have high prediction precision for drought crop area.