Statistical relationship of malaria in Papua New Guinea and solar activity

Abstract

We carried out a statistical analysis of the monthly cerebral malaria cases in Papua New Guinea for the period January 1987 - December 1996 and also the analysis of the monthly solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the same period. The solar activity was described by the sunspot numbers and the F10.7 solar flux. As a measure of the geomagnetic activity the aa-indices were used. A close negative correlation between cerebral malaria cases and solar activity indices was found. The correlation of cerebral malaria cases with F10.7 reaches −0.66, and −0.70 with sunspot numbers. The confidence level of relationships was determined by Student’s t-test and reaches 0.00001. All calculations were performed with raw data without smoothing which supports the correctness of the obtained results. The close correlations of cerebral malaria found in Papua New Guinea with solar activity indices could be important for the prognosis of cerebral malaria in this region.We carried out a statistical analysis of the monthly cerebral malaria cases in Papua New Guinea for the period January 1987 - December 1996 and also the analysis of the monthly solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the same period. The solar activity was described by the sunspot numbers and the F10.7 solar flux. As a measure of the geomagnetic activity the aa-indices were used. A close negative correlation between cerebral malaria cases and solar activity indices was found. The correlation of cerebral malaria cases with F10.7 reaches −0.66, and −0.70 with sunspot numbers. The confidence level of relationships was determined by Student’s t-test and reaches 0.00001. All calculations were performed with raw data without smoothing which supports the correctness of the obtained results. The close correlations of cerebral malaria found in Papua New Guinea with solar activity indices could be important for the prognosis of cerebral malaria in this region.