Statistical Model Updates for Fast-Tracked Model Insights and Value-of-Information

Abstract

Insights from appraisal well tests can take months to incorporate into subsurface modelling, causing delays to development planning and resulting in key decisions being made using incomplete data and sub-optimal methods. This is due to the time-consuming process of updating or rebuilding reservoir models, simulating them and subsequently analysing the results. In this project, a combination of automated geomodelling, rapid dynamic simulation and statistical analysis were applied to reduce the time to insights from months to days. Well test pressure data was used to condition a suite of reservoir models and evaluate the impact on the optimal development scenario. The application of this process increased confidence in the decision and reduced the modelled probability of low-side outcomes. In addition, we trialled a process to deliver an improvement to the geological understanding of the field through a reduction in the model uncertainties. We also discuss an extension of this concept to perform a robust value-of-information assessment of appraisal or development planning decisions.