Estimating the Multiplier Effect of Investment Projects of the Far Eastern Federal District on Regional Socio-Economic Development

Abstract

Approximately two thousand investment projects, which have already been financed at a cost of about 700 billion roubles, are being implemented in the Far Eastern Federal District. The effects from the implementation of these projects include the commissioning of about 270 enterprises and creation of over 40 thousand jobs. The paper aims to develop and test tools for estimating the multiplier effect of investment projects on the dynamics of regional development indicators. The integral analysis method was used to aggregate various multi-dimensional characteristics of selected projects into one synthetic indicator. As a result, a generalised ranking of investment projects was compiled to assess their combined contribution to regional development. The top-3 projects are: 1) Inaglinsky mining and processing plant (has the greatest economic effect estimated by the expected gross regional product increment of 252 billion roubles); 2) Vostochny Cosmodrome (is expected to create 4,000 new jobs); 3) Sakhalin GRES-2 (has a commercial effect estimated by the expected inflow of private investment in the amount of 432 billion roubles). A detailed study of Far Eastern investment projects in the coordinate space “regional efficiency — regional socio-economic development” allowed us to quantify their multiplicative contribution to socio-economic development of the regions. According to the ranking of investment projects in the Far Eastern Federal District, the largest projects, expected to show high quantitative results, have a multidirectional impact on the socio-economic indicators of the regions of operation. The research results can be used to develop national and regional support programmes for major investment projects to attract additional funding, establish a system of measures for maintaining a favourable investment climate in the region, as well as to create the necessary infrastructure.