Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana

IF 2.4 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economics Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.303

B. N. Iyke, Sin‐Yu Ho

引用次数: 12

Abstract

Inflation and inflation uncertainty are critical factors influencing the functioning of markets and thus the efficient flow of economic activities. In this study, we investigated the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on growth in Ghana. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, we distinguished the short-run effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on growth from the long-run effects. Also, unlike the previous studies, we examined whether increases in inflation uncertainty have the same effects on growth as decreases in it. By applying linear and nonlinear specifications to a data set covering the period 1963 to 2015, we found that inflation has both short and long-run negative effects on growth. Inflation uncertainty has a differential short-run effect and a negative long-run effect on growth. Increases in inflation uncertainty hurt growth, while decreases may reverse this pattern, albeit slowly. Both inflation and inflation uncertainty are critical determinants of growth in the country. To promote growth, policymakers should continue to pursue a low inflation target while ensuring minimal inflation uncertainty.

查看原文本刊更多论文

通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性和增长:来自加纳的证据

通货膨胀和通货膨胀的不确定性是影响市场运作的关键因素，从而影响经济活动的有效流动。在本研究中，我们调查了通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性对加纳经济增长的影响。与之前的大多数研究不同，我们将通胀和通胀不确定性对经济增长的短期影响与长期影响区分开来。此外，与之前的研究不同，我们研究了通货膨胀不确定性的增加是否与通货膨胀不确定性的减少对经济增长的影响相同。通过对1963年至2015年期间的数据集应用线性和非线性规范，我们发现通货膨胀对经济增长既有短期的负面影响，也有长期的负面影响。通货膨胀的不确定性对经济增长有不同的短期影响和负面的长期影响。通胀不确定性的增加会损害经济增长，而通胀下降可能会扭转这种模式，尽管速度缓慢。通货膨胀和通货膨胀的不确定性都是该国经济增长的关键决定因素。为促进增长，政策制定者应继续追求低通胀目标，同时确保通胀不确定性降至最低。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Contemporary Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Contemporary Economics is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research in economics, finance, accounting and management with the noticeable contribution and impact to the development of those disciplines and preferably with practice relevancies. All entirety of methods is desirable, including a falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of a theory, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication that clarifies the boundaries or range of a theory for theoretical research as well as qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, meta-analytic, and combination for an empirical research. This clear priority for comprehensive manuscripts containing a methodology-based theoretical and empirical research with implications and recommendations for policymaking does not exclude manuscripts entirely focused on theory or methodology. Manuscripts that raise significant, actual topics of international relevance will be highly appreciated. The interdisciplinary approach including – besides economic, financial, accounting or managerial –also other aspects, is welcomed.