Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) in Emergency Caused by Captain Incapacitation: Deterministic and Stochastic Modelling

Abstract

The authors present a new approach to decision-making to ensure the proper collaboration of different personnel. Models are used in intelligent integrated decision support systems, especially for actions in emergencies. Behavioral deterministic models are used for synchronization actions of all operators, to support and timely predicting of operators' actions in an emergency. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for collaborative decision making (CDM) under uncertainty by the operators (pilots, air traffic controllers, flight/dispatch), and other invited specialists, have been developed. The decision-making modeling of a group of operators in case of an emergency situation such as “pilot incapacitation” was presented. The methodological basis for CDM in certainty is network planning, in conditions of Stochastic uncertainty – is a decision tree, in conditions of non-stochastic uncertainty – is a matrix of decisions, and outcomes are made this using the expert judgment method for obtaining quantity estimations.