Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
D. Hathaway, R. Wilson, E. Reichmann
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.
第23周期天气预报现况
在太阳活动周期时间尺度上预测太阳活动的许多技术被确定、描述和用历史数据进行测试。一些技术,例如回归和曲线拟合,在太阳活动接近极大值时工作得很好,并提供对未来活动逐月的描述,而另一些技术,例如地磁前兆,在太阳活动接近极小值时工作得很好,但只提供周期幅度的估计。综合不同的技术可以提供更准确和有用的太阳周期活动水平预报。结合两种不相关的地磁前体技术,可以在太阳活动极小期之前的某一时刻,对太阳活动周期的振幅作出最准确的预测。这种前体方法给出了第23周期的平滑太阳黑子数最大值为154+21。依赖于周期起始时间和周期振幅的数学函数描述了整个周期的太阳活动水平。当周期最大值时间接近时,通过将近期活动水平与该函数的拟合包括在内,可以更好地估计周期活动。综合太阳周期活动预报现在给出了第23周期的太阳黑子最大值140+20。地磁前兆在预测未来太阳活动方面的成功表明,太阳黑子活动带以上纬度地区的太阳磁现象与太阳活动有关,而太阳活动发生在许多年后的低纬度地区。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
29.70%
发文量
166
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications (SWE) is devoted to understanding and forecasting space weather. The scope of understanding and forecasting includes: origins, propagation and interactions of solar-produced processes within geospace; interactions in Earth’s space-atmosphere interface region produced by disturbances from above and below; influences of cosmic rays on humans, hardware, and signals; and comparisons of these types of interactions and influences with the atmospheres of neighboring planets and Earth’s moon. Manuscripts should emphasize impacts on technical systems including telecommunications, transportation, electric power, satellite navigation, avionics/spacecraft design and operations, human spaceflight, and other systems. Manuscripts that describe models or space environment climatology should clearly state how the results can be applied.
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