Isolating China: Deglobalisation and its Impact on Global Value Chains

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
B. Gopalakrishnan, Sumathi Chakravarthy, Tavishi Tewary, Vranda Jain
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

As global value chains (GVCs) account for 80% of global trade, the revival of protectionism, amidst the looming trade tensions between United States and other trading partners, particularly China will dampen the international input–output relations. By using a multi-regional and multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this study analyses China driven GVCs. The study explores the impact of tariff change on China and its major trading partners on economic variables like consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports and sectors like electronic goods, coal, crude oil and machine equipment for the five-year period, that is, 2021–2025. GTAP 10 database has been used. The findings of the study suggest that although China’s dominance may diminish, yet it would continue to be one of the prominent players in GVC. Further, based on the results, the global economy can look forward to fragmented and locally oriented supply chains. At the sectoral level, the shorter supply chains would lead a further disjoint global trade system with a wider range of suppliers for similar products and hence increased regionalisation of production. JEL Codes: F10, F17, F60, F16, D58
孤立中国:去全球化及其对全球价值链的影响
由于全球价值链(GVCs)占全球贸易的80%,在美国与其他贸易伙伴,特别是中国之间迫在眉睫的贸易紧张局势中,保护主义的复苏将抑制国际投入产出关系。本文采用多区域、多部门动态可计算一般均衡模型,分析了中国驱动的全球价值链。本研究探讨了2021-2025年五年期间关税变化对中国及其主要贸易伙伴的消费、投资、政府支出、进出口以及电子产品、煤炭、原油和机械设备等经济变量的影响。已使用GTAP 10数据库。研究结果表明,尽管中国的主导地位可能会减弱,但它仍将是全球价值链的主要参与者之一。此外,根据研究结果,全球经济可以期待分散的、以本地为导向的供应链。在部门一级,较短的供应链将导致全球贸易体系进一步脱节,类似产品的供应商范围更广,从而增加了生产的区域化。JEL代码:F10, F17, F60, F16, D58
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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