Seizing opportunities: ASEAN country cluster readiness in light of the fourth industrial revolution

Patricia Enzmann, Matteo Moesli
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Technological advances of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) threaten Southeast Asian countries’ industrialization model and expose its workforce to the risk of substitution. Using the Dynamic Pattern Synthesis method to ascertain how Southeast Asian countries are prepared to face these risks, we have identified three clusters based on manufacturing resources and associated them to different levels of technological capabilities. While the Cluster 1 countries Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar prove the least and Cluster 3 nations Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam the most advanced, the preparedness of Cluster 2 countries Indonesia and the Philippines shows mixed results. Our findings emphasize the importance of human capital and trade paired with strong institutions to advance technological abilities, based on which we discuss each cluster's readiness for the 4IR.

把握机遇:第四次工业革命下的东盟国家集群准备
第四次工业革命的技术进步威胁着东南亚国家的工业化模式,并使其劳动力面临替代风险。利用动态模式综合方法来确定东南亚国家如何准备面对这些风险,我们根据制造资源确定了三个集群,并将它们与不同水平的技术能力联系起来。虽然第一组国家柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸表现最差,而第三组国家马来西亚、泰国和越南表现最好,但第二组国家印度尼西亚和菲律宾的准备情况喜忧参半。我们的研究结果强调了人力资本和贸易与强大的制度相结合对提高技术能力的重要性,并在此基础上讨论了每个集群对第四次工业革命的准备情况。
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