Safe from Harm? Massive Attack Nuclear Worst-Case Scenario for Civil Protection in Germany Regarding High-Risk Zones of Exposure, Vulnerability, and Safe Havens

Challenges Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI:10.3390/challe13020047
Alexander Fekete
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Abstract

New risk geographies are emerging with war and conflict resurfacing, including nuclear threats. This poses challenges to civil protection for conducting risk-informed preparedness planning. A spatial assessment of Germany and Europe is conducted using a geographic information system. Buffer circles of nuclear explosion effects and fallout buffers show potentially exposed areas around major cities. Different scenarios indicate shrinking areas safe from exposure. However, even in a densely populated country, rural areas and smaller cities can be identified that could provide sites for evacuation shelters. Changing wind directions poses a challenge for civil protection planning because fallout risk covers most German territory even when few cities are attacked. However, wind speeds and topography can help identify suitable shelter areas. More knowledge about the temporal development of a nuclear explosion and its specific forms of harm can also help to improve risk knowledge and planning. While nuclear warfare at first seems to render useless any option for safe areas and survival, the spatial risk assessment shows that exposure does not occur at all places at all times. Being safe from harm will be difficult in such a worst-case scenario, but avoiding large city perimeters and being informed can also help reduce risk.
安全不受伤害?大规模核攻击:德国关于高风险暴露区、脆弱性和安全避难所的最坏情况
随着包括核威胁在内的战争和冲突重新浮出水面,新的风险地区正在出现。这对民防部门开展风险知情准备规划提出了挑战。利用地理信息系统对德国和欧洲进行了空间评估。核爆炸效应缓冲圈和沉降物缓冲圈显示了主要城市周围潜在的暴露区域。不同的场景表明,安全区域在不断缩小。然而,即使在人口密集的国家,也可以确定农村地区和较小的城市可以提供疏散避难所的地点。风向的改变给民防规划带来了挑战,因为即使很少有城市受到攻击,辐射尘的风险也覆盖了大部分德国领土。然而,风速和地形可以帮助确定合适的避风处。更多地了解核爆炸的时间发展及其具体危害形式也有助于提高对风险的认识和规划。虽然核战争一开始似乎使安全区和生存的任何选择都变得无用,但空间风险评估表明,并非所有地点在任何时候都发生暴露。在这种最坏的情况下,要做到安全不受伤害是很困难的,但避开大城市周边并了解情况也有助于降低风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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