Planning Ward and Intensive Care Unit Beds for COVID-19 Patients Using a Discrete Event Simulation Model

Abstract

This paper reports the construction of a simulation model used to support the decision-making concerned with the short-term planning of the necessary hospital beds to face the COVID-19 in Navarre, Spain. The simulation model focusses on estimating the health system’s transitory state. It reproduces the outbreak dynamics by using the Gompertz growth model and the patient flow through the hospital, including the possible admission in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The output estimates the number of the necessary ward and ICU beds to provide healthcare to all patients for the next days. The simulation model uses expert opinions at the first stages of the outbreak, but as more data are collected the necessary parameters are fitted by statistical analysis or combining both. Every day, the research team informed the regional logistic team in charge of planning the health resources. Based on these predictions the authorities plan the necessary resources.