Geographically Weighted Regression Modeling of Spatial Clustering and Determinants of Focal Typhoid Fever Incidence

Abstract

Abstract Background Typhoid is known to be heterogenous in time and space, with documented spatiotemporal clustering and hotspots associated with environmental factors. This analysis evaluated spatial clustering of typhoid and modeled incidence rates of typhoid from active surveillance at 4 sites with child cohorts in India. Methods Among approximately 24 000 children aged 0.5–15 years followed for 2 years, typhoid was confirmed by blood culture in all children with fever >3 days. Local hotspots for incident typhoid cases were assessed using SaTScan spatial cluster detection. Incidence of typhoid was modeled with sociodemographic and water, sanitation, and hygiene–related factors in smaller grids using nonspatial and spatial regression analyses. Results Hotspot households for typhoid were identified at Vellore and Kolkata. There were 4 significant SaTScan clusters (P < .05) for typhoid in Vellore. Mean incidence of typhoid was 0.004 per child-year with the highest incidence (0.526 per child-year) in Kolkata. Unsafe water and poor sanitation were positively associated with typhoid in Kolkata and Delhi, whereas drinking untreated water was significantly associated in Vellore (P = .0342) and Delhi (P = .0188). Conclusions Despite decades of efforts to improve water and sanitation by the Indian government, environmental factors continue to influence the incidence of typhoid. Hence, administration of the conjugate vaccine may be essential even as efforts to improve water and sanitation continue.