Trivariate Stochastic Weather Model for Predicting Maize Yield

Abstract

Maize yield prediction in the sub-Saharan region is imperative for mitigation of risks emanating from crop loss due to changes in climate. Temperature, rainfall amount, and reference evapotranspiration are major climatic factors affecting maize yield. They are not only interdependent but also have significantly changed due to climate change, which causes nonlinearity and nonstationarity in weather data. Hence, there exists a need for a stochastic process for predicting maize yield with higher precision. To solve the problem, this paper constructs a joint stochastic process that acquires joints effects of the three weather processes from joint a probability density function (pdf) constructed using copulas that maintain interdependence. Stochastic analyses are applied on the pdf and process to account for nonlinearity and nonstationarity, and also establish a corresponding stochastic differential equation (SDE) for maize yield. The trivariate stochastic process predicts maize yield with R 2 = 0.8389 and M A P E = 4.31 % under a deep learning framework. Its aggregated values predict maize yield with R 2 up to 0.9765 and M A P E = 1.94 % under common machine learning algorithms. Comparatively, the R 2 is 0.8829% and M A P E = 4.18 % , under the maize yield SDE. Thus, the joint stochastic process can be used to predict maize yield with higher precision.